2007 Hurricane season

I’m waiting with bated breath for the final hurricane season forecast. First they’ll remind us that hurricane season isn’t over until the end of Nov. although we all know that if nothing is happening by mid October, nothing is going to happen. And then they’ll predict a below normal season. duhhhhhhh.

What I wonder about is why they bother to make predictions at all. I understand that the complexity of forecasting weather even a few days out is high so making a forecast 6 months out is crazy. Crazy to make the forecast and crazy for anybody to pay any attention to it. For the life of me, I can’t figure out why they do it. What are we supposed to do when they forecast an above average season, or a below average season, or even an average season. Do I go out and buy 2 generators for an above average season or more batteries or what? You’re either prepared for a storm or your not. I can’t see how you’d prepare any differently for a forecasted bad season.

This year’s predictions were particularly interesting since this is the second year in a row that above average seasons were predicted – in fact this one was projected to be the worst on record. Why it’s most interesting is that the forecasters were challenged openly after missing the 2006 season so badly – another record bad season predicted; another below average actual. They had a definite scientific reason why this season would be bad and why the previous season had not been. It was the el Nino, La Nina thing. The 2006 year was La Nina and even though they had forecast a horrible hurricane season, in hindsight they realized just why they had missed it. And since El Nino is the opposite of La Nina, it was scientifically clear that this season was really going to be the worst. What I enjoy is how they can make these statements so positively and just can’t bring themselves to say, “hell, we don’t know”. What hubris.

So why do they do it? Some possibilities are:

1. The American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Service have a pre season pool. The forecaster who wins the pool gets to pick the names for next season’s storms. If the winner has a large family, then he projects a big season so all his relatives can get a storm named for them.

2. The budgets at the NWS and AMS are based on the forecast. There’s no upside at all to predicting a quiet season since it probably means a budget cut and no overtime.

3. There’s a big Fantasy Hurricane league that we don’t know about and you can’t play if there’s not enough storms in the forecast. I only offer this possibility because I’ve noted that the number of hurricanes forecast has increased over the years as the success of Fantasy sports games has grown.

4. Women lib groups got pissed off that hurricanes all had female names. So when males names were added, the name pool doubled and it became necessary to increase the forecast to accommodate that fact.

To make the missed forecasts a little less noticeable, they started naming weather systems that would have gone unnoticed in the past. Have you noticed how many storms form or at least seem to be forming, are named, and then just go away? I think the first storm of this season that got noticed was a “C” name. The “A” and “B” storms only existed an hour or so. Enough to name them for the 5 PM news and cancel them by the 8 AM news the next morning. Deep down inside, I believe some storms really never existed at all but the bad forecast is so embarrassing that the predictors need some face saving cover. You’ll notice that they form one day over an area in the middle of nowhere, far from any shipping lanes, and then, as if by magic, they go away. How about when they point out a storm area in the Caribbean and then to show you a center of rotation where none exists. You are looking at the radar track and see absolutely no sign of a center of rotation but they are pointing one out about a jillion miles from the storm. In Florida we’re further treated to the scene of an intrepid reporter on the beach in full weather gear while the natives are swimming and surfing. I’m not making that up. We’ve reached the point where normal, Florida afternoon rain storms are tracked as intensely as hurricanes were 50 years ago. Back then, each hurricane season you acquired a hurricane tracking map and then plotted each storm yourself based on new coordinates given out by the weather service twice a day. That was it. When a storm really looked like it was tracking your way, you started calling around to find out who’s turn it was to have the hurricane party.

But the thing to remember is that the same guys (scientists) who are doing the hurricane forecasting, are among those scientists pimping the global warming scare. Of course they have developed computer models that show exactly how things will look 50 years from now. Same modelers, using the same data that forecast hurricanes. Or for that matter, next week’s weather. Of course the local weather has the advantage of good historical averages and the advantage of saying there’s a 20% chance of something happening. Who can argue with that. Here in Fla, even when it’s raining hard and wide, the forecaster will be giving it an 80% chance of rain. Or when there’s not a cloud in the sky for 500 miles in every direction, they give it a 20% chance of rain. We’ve had a cold front dropping temperatures 5 days out for about a month now. Eventually we’ll actually have one and as we all know it will be in October or November. Same modelers, same data. And I suspect the same motive – no problem, no budget; big problem, big budget and lots of face time on the tube.

Barry

We survived Barry just fine. It’s great that the news and weather people are so on top of the storms because if they weren’t we probably wouldn’t have known we were in one. We’d have all just thought it was a normal, regular old go to hell Florida summer storm. I think giving them names now instead of just telling you it’s going to rain is a nice touch. But I am concerned that predicting a number of storms for a season gives rise to premature naming. It’s fun watching the weather guys pointing out or trying to point out some “rotation” which is synonymous with tropical storms and hurricanes. They point out an area somewhere in the middle of the gulf and say something like “the center of rotation is now located at xxyyzz” and then draw a circle around an area that looks absolutely like the rest of the cloud cover. To the casual observer there is no rotation at all. I also like it when they start flying the hurricane planes and report that they found a spot where the winds were 35 mph so it’s now getting a name. The next day they can’t find the spot with winds that high but the storm remains named. And the planes quit flying after that one “naming” flight. So I guess if you can find a cloud bank that looks like it is rotating and a blast of wind at 35 mph, however short in duration, you can officially give it a name and uphold the reputation of the forecasters who forecast an active season.

For a while they were calling this a “subtropical storm”. I’m wondering if that’s the same as a tropical sub storm which is a more apt description of both “Axxxx”, (already forgotten the first storm) which died somewhere the day after it was named, and Barry.

Don’t get me wrong, the rain was really appreciated but can you really with a straight face cover a storm for two days that dumps a total of about 2” of rain? 2″ in one hour is not a reportable event in Florida; 10″ maybe, 2″, I don’t think so. I watched the local NBC channel tonight and they start the broadcast saying they have 5 reporters stationed at key locations to report on Barry. The first guy is on the beach in rain gear. All around him are normal beach people in bathing suits waving at the camera; then they switch to a guy in Ocala who is pointing at some dark clouds and saying how bad the clouds look. Of course it’s dry and sunny where he’s standing and he proclaims how amazing it is that you can see storm clouds and clear blue sky at the same time. I’m impressed that they can do it without cracking up. I empathize for the poor reporter in the field who knows he looks like a total jerk trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. But my favorite was the footage of the 8′ gator being captured in a field – there because of the storm. In almost every newscast for the past couple of months there has been footage of gators moving about on land attributed to the drought or to mating season. But this one was moving because of the storm. Give me a break. Wait, wait I have a new favorite. This reporter is standing in a large puddle caused by a clogged drain in Orlando. She is ankle deep but reports that the puddle is 2′ deep. Either this is one strangely built reporter or she doesn’t understand the difference between 2″ and 2′. It might have worked if she had been standing on the curb instead of in the middle of the puddle – but wait, even the curb is only 6″ high.

What a crock!!!! My concern is that people will actually pay attention to all this and become total storm wimps. Hello, this is Florida. We get nasty thunder storms all summer long and consider that totally normal. We’re down about a foot of rain statewide, even more in South Florida. Hopefully we’ll have a couple of nice rainy hurricanes this year to bring it all back to normal.

Reality sets in

I’ve had 3 jolts of reality this week and it’s reset my clock.

First I got my diploma from the treatment center. Nancy read that as “ok, back to the yard work”. I had a built in pass as long as I was getting zapped daily but when that ended, my pass was pulled in a heartbeat. I played the 30 day card but we’re back to real life. The silver lining on my dark cloud has been yanked.

It was confirmed last night that American Idol is not a contest to see who’s the best singer. I was fairly certain when some really low life talent lasted well into the contest but in the last two weeks, clearly the best singing talent was eliminated. I understood keeping the one with the long legs in much longer than her talent suggested; sort of a potted plant. And I knew from the get go that a fat girl like Lakisha, no matter how talented, couldn’t win. But knocking off the best singer and leaving one very good and one dud, tells you exactly what it’s all about. Melinda was just too old to get the teeny bopper votes. Reality

And finally and perhaps the most devasting, I found an error in a published Soduko puzzle today. Up until now I assumed that they were computer generated and therefore error free. When a puzzle didn’t work out, I took it on faith it was me that screwed it up. And I could live with that just fine. But it will never be the same now that I know the puzzle can have a printed error and that is possibly the source of the puzzle not working out. Would you want to work a jigsaw puzzle if you knew that maybe a piece didn’t fit; or work a crossword puzzle if you knew that only a misspelled word fit? For those of you in disbelief and saying that you know I just screwed up and blamed the puzzle man – I’m cutting it out and preserving it for proof. They print the solutions tomorrow and it will show it all worked out – can’t wait to see the one they show vs the one they printed today.

I think I’m going to spend the rest of the day fishing off the dock to get my head right.

Go Gators

Before we moved to Florida the Gators had not won a National Championship in Football or Basketball in at least 50 years, if ever. We moved here and they have notched 3. You do the math. Rumor has it that Kentucky is trying to recruit Bobby Donavan. Wonder if they’ll be contacting us at the same time?

I’m particularly gleeful since Ohio State is one of the few teams in the nation I can truly say I’ve hated. Goes way, way back to a time when I worked at the Cape for some guy who was a Big 10, Ohio State fan and he prattled on about the Big 10 and how much better it was than the SEC. He was the boss and I was a summer hire so I kept my mouth as shut as I could. He was wrong then and assuming he’s still alive, is probably still wrong. I guess there’s a chance he got religion but I doubt it.

Disasters?

Did you hear or read the latest scare story from the scientists? This week a prestigious group from England came out with a report that says the oceans will be fished out within 50 years and there will be no fish left – totally destroying the oceans. Last week another prestigious group from England came out with a report describing the costs of global warming which basically said we will be totally broke by 2100, living on a dry planet.

At my advanced age I have two advantages over you younger folk. First and most obvious is that I won’t be around to experience all these disasters. Second, and maybe more reassuring to you, I’ve heard it all before. I was in college when I was exposed to my first “world ending” prediction from groups of prestigious scientists – the earth was entering a period of global cooling and we were at the front end of another ice age. There were many articles with maps showing how the glaciers would come down from Canada all the way into the plains. The northern part of the country would be under hundreds of feet of ice. Much of the water in the ocean would be caught up in icebergs so that the water level would dramatically drop. In Florida the coast line would move 100 miles out from where it was and it would snow every winter. That really bothered me because at the time we lived right on the beach and I just couldn’t imagine that instead I’d be 100 miles from the beach and it would be too cold to swim in anyway. I just bet that if any of them are alive, those same prestigious scientists are on the global warming side. I like global warming way better than ice ages.

The next disaster predicted by a group of prestigious scientists was that the population of the earth was growing so fast that within 50 years – so that would be now – there woudl be worldwide famine. It was technically impossible to grow enough food to feed the masses – there simply wasn’t enough land. India and China would suffer first but eventually we would all simply run out of resources. The big movement was called ZPG for Zero Population Growth. I can remember my cousin Joan coming to my dorm to warn me to take it seriously. She was a med student so she knew much more about it than I did and she was concerned that I just wasn’t worried enough. I guess we know now that she took it very seriously since neither she nor anyone in that family had any kids. How interesting to find that not only is there no worldwide famine – but India and China are both now exporting food and one of the large worldwide economic issues of the day is the protection of farmers from cheaper imports. All over the world land is being taken out of agriculture because there’s too much food available.

Later in the 60’s we worried about “nuclear winter”. This group of prestigious scientists said we were certain to have a nuclear accident or event that would trigger chain reactions and massive explosions. So big, in fact, that a cloud of dirt and dust would completely cover the earth and block out the sun. The temperatures would drop and we would all be dead in short order – either from a lack of sun or radioactive fallout. I was never sure which would happen first.

At some point in the 70’s we (earthlings) were being barraged by ion blasts or something from explosions on the sun. It seems that the sun is just a continous series of hydrogen bomb kind of explosions which generated something called solar flares that reach out jillions of miles from the surface of the sun. These ions would totally wipe out the electrical systems around the world so there would be no power, no radio, no TV. I think it was also predicted to reverse the magnetic field of the earth so I guess compasses would all work backwards. And that was about the time we learned that there are huge asteroids drifting around out in space that would some day crash into earth, totally destroying it.

And didn’t we have Avian Flu last year. Remember this was to be a globe cleaning pandemic that would kill jillions of people. There wasn’t enough antibiotic on earth to stop it. Every newscast had reports of dead ducks in Taiwan or a dead goose turning up in Holland. Plenty of maps showing the migratory patterns of birds and how the flu would travel around the world. First we’d lose all the birds in the world and then the virus would learn to transfer from birds to people. What I wonder is how this could go from something that was going to impact the globe and basically deplete the population of the earth to a non event and there be no follow up news about what a bunch of crap it was. I wonder where these jillions of doses of antibiotic are??

I guess the thing that never ceases to amaze me is how all these dire predictions just sort of drift off into oblivion and the prestigious scientists just keep coming up with more dire, world ending predictions. Now they have large supercomputers to support their nonsense and wall to wall media to spread it. The scariest thing to me is the possibility that Nancy Pelosi could become Speaker of the House – that’s third in line for the presidency. Now that’s scary.

Watch and Download Movie After Everything (2018)

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Watch and Download Movie After Everything (2018)

After Everything

Released October, 10 2018|Duration : 1 hours 35 minutes

0

DIRECTED BY : Hannah Marks, Joey Power.

GENRE : Drama, Comedy, Romance.

VIDEO : 720p.

LANGUAGE : English.

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COUNTRY : United States of America.

PRODUCTION BY : Yale Productions, WYSJ Media, The Exchange.

PLOT SUMMARY

‘After Everything’ is a movie genre Drama, was released in October 12, 2018. Hannah Marks was directed this movie and starring by Jeremy Allen White. This movie tell story about When Elliot, a brash 23-year-old living carefree in New York City, meets the sensible Mia and receives a damning diagnosis all in the same week, his world is turned completely upside down. But as their love blossoms amidst the chaos of his treatment, they discover that Elliot’s illness is not the real test of their relationship – it’s everything else.

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nature’s riddle

In my last post, a comment suggested that the topic of the weight guidelines was not of sufficient depth to be categorized as a deep thought. Let me try again for a deeper thought as I tackle a subject that we have all pondered.

This past weekend George and Barbara attended an old car show in Savannah and I had Chink duty. That means making sure his food and water are adequate and to take him for a short morning walk to accomplish all those things that are accomplished with a morning dog walk. I walk him; no – rather he walks me; no, to be totally accurate, he pulls me from their house to 17 and back. It was reminiscent of being walked by Bruce with bursts of strong yanks when a particularly sniffable bush or post appears. Saturday was uneventful other than just missing stepping on a coral snake – sniff, pee, pull; sniff, pee, pull. At the end of the pull, I pondered on just how often he peed and decided to pay more attention on Sunday. I did and he stopped to whizz 17 times. The first was a major whizz as you expect but after that he still managed a sizable stream at each way point. Which brings me to my deep thought – I understand that dogs mark spots but how is it that they never seem to run dry? Does their kidney/bladder system generate on demand? Do they have a regular tank and a reserve tank from which calibrated squirts can be called up? Or is the whole bladder compartmentalized in some fashion, depleted in a sequential fashion, and then refilled on an as emptied basis? How far could he go without a water input or is the system so good that it will just eat up all the fluid in his body fulfilling the mission so that his dying declaration is a squirt? Inquiring minds want to know.