political prognostication

I usually don’t write back to back blog entries, but it’s too cold to go out.

I want to make my political forecast before the Iowa caucuses so that I’m not biased by those results – which I think are meaningless this year. As a broad overview, there has never been a more motley crew running for as long as I’ve been politically aware. It makes me sad that between the two parties, there’s not one person I could really get behind. Of course It’s not likely I’d ever vote for a Democrat as they define themselves these days – in the 50’s, when the Democrats were far more conservative – think Southern Dem’s, Scoop Jackson – sure. But when the Democrats moved their base of operation to San Francisco, Boston, and New York, and drummed Joe Lieberman out of the party for being too conservative, they lost me along with most of the south.

That said, how in the world can the Republicans field a group with guys like an ex governor from Massachusetts, a thrice married, pro abortion, pro gun control New Yorker, and a guitar playing, aw shucks, Baptist minister from Hope Arkansas as their leading choices. You don’t win elections in Massachusetts or New York by being conservative. At least Rudy doesn’t back away and deny his past; Romney is a plastic guy and will say whatever it takes. He even looks like a Ken doll. I don’t count Fred Thompson as a real candidate and hope he can get his day job back. I do enjoy watching Ron Paul win the hearts and $$ of the non-voting crowd.

When all the dust settles, no doubt the dem’s will pick Hillary. The press will do their best to make it sound like there are other candidates, but trust me, it just ain’t so. The Clintons have money, organization, are ruthless and know where all the bodies are buried. End of story. I’m certainly happy about that and truly believe she’s the most beatable candidate they could field. I would be far more concerned about Obama and his ability to provide all the guilt ridden Dem’s a chance to wipe the slate clean on their racial past. One scenario I think about is Edwards dropping out and throwing his support to Obama. Reasonably sure that still wouldn’t do it but that would make the Clinton’s (and me) groan a bit. I can’t imagine anyone cares who Biden or Dodd would support. My guess is the reason they are in it at all is to collect money and maybe a shot at the VP slot regardless of who gets the eventual nomination. Biden could help Obama and I suspect that’s who he’ll throw the 3 voters he accumulates toward. Don’t think he’d be too interested in a slot behind Bill.

For the Republicans, as much as I don’t like him, McCain will be the winner. Given the choices, he wins by default. He benefits by any nasty world events that are sure to happen over the next year and is scruffy enough looking to win the trustworthy, honest guy vote. Prisoner of war, married 100 years to the same woman, Arizona home, maybe Episcopal or Methodist – nothing too out there, nothing too negative for most people. And I think he gets the dropout support. Fred Thompson will be the first to hang it up and will support McCain. Huckabee goes next and goes to McCain – no way he can support Romney. Game over. I guess the good news about that is he can for sure beat Hillary. He’ll be able to swing plenty of Democrats because many of his past positions were so Democrat – think McCain Feingold (supposed) campaign finance reform; an easy path for illegals to gain citizenship; and sufficient Bush bashing along the way. He’ll be a hold your nose pick of most Republicans – given the choice between him and Billary. I’m not going to predict a running mate, since he is so unpredictable, but if he proves weak in the South, Huckabee could make sense – kind of an Al Gore sort of choice. Good at Funerals and on the entertainment committee. It really doesn’t matter who Hillary chooses because we get Bill and he’d be a de facto VP. Probably a good chance to name an ethnic – how about the rev’s Jackson or Big Al Sharpton.

The one scenario that makes me nervous is Bloomberg getting into the race as a third party candidate. Perot gave us Clinton 1; Bloomberg could give us Clinton 2. That’s the one exception to my ABC theory – Anybody Beats Clinton.

Just my opinion.

And another “suspicions confirmed”. Dr. Frank, the big guru from the National Hurricane Center, just said that 6 of the 15 named storms this past season shouldn’t have been classified as tropical storms – too weak. He also said that for the last decade the NWS has been routinely categorizing storms as Tropical Storms which would not have qualified in prior years. And he also reiterated his position that the storms have nothing to do with any global warming and that the practice of naming smaller storms is done to support theories that the number of storms is hooked to global warming. I think most of us old guys in Fla have known that this storm categorizing thing has been over inflated so it’s nice to hear it from the expert.

3 thoughts on “political prognostication

  1. You got Iowa wrong. Does this bode poorly for future projections? I did notice that you didn’t pontificate on the NH outcome… I need someone to count on…


  2. Fred, you didn’t read it. I did not make a forecast on Iowa at all. I predicted only the end result of the whole process – McCain vs Hillary. So I’m right on target. And take note that I picked McCain when he was dead meat.


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