I have a mental image of Al Gore banging his head against the wall, trying to end it all. The 2006 hurricane season is shaping up as a total disaster for the global warmsters. For the scientist kind of warmsters, this is no big deal, just another datapoint. But for Gore, this is career crushing. He knows he’s a loser but he needs another shot. To get it he has to hook onto something that trumps all other problems and be way, way out in front of it. He and most everybody else on the planet understands that the average surface temp of the earth has been rising for a bit, I guess it would qualify as a trend. But nominally Earth is dynamic and always changing one way or the other so in it’s 4.5B year history, chances are there have been zillions of micro-micro pico- micro trends of a few decades. So it’s kind of hard for me to get too emotional about any new “trend”; Probably made more difficult having lived through the mini ice age and the predicted return of the glaciers as far south as Florida in the 50’s. But big Al decides to forget issues like taxes, immigration, and other such trivia to latch onto global warming. He writes a book; makes a documentary – all designed to portray him as the lone political voice able to recognize the looming disaster and put the US on the path to lead the world away from the crisis. The hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005, record seasons, were enough of a trend line for Al because he probably truly does believe the warming is man made and inexorably heading towards a world of floods and natural disaster. He’s smart enough to know that even if it’s true, there’s nothing he can do about it, but what the hell, maybe he can use it as a shield to put all the loser stuff behind him and look like a visionary. What he needs is a couple of Katrina’s in 2006 and 2007 to catapult him back into the White House. And all the weather guys are forecasting 2006 to break all records for numbers of storms and intensity. Lots of Class 5’s and perhaps, just maybe he could luck out and hit a class 7.

But reality is setting in. Midway through hurricane season, nary a storm worth mentioning. Even with the super hype and giving names to good rain storms, it’s starting to look more like an average storm year – a few close calls and some good blows between mid Sept and mid Oct. It’s still possible that he can recover but the window is starting to close. Hence the mental image of Al banging his head against the wall. A loser again.

But what about the lack of storms. I predicted that – but just because statistically we’d had two bad seasons and I didn’t think it likely that we’d have 3 in a row. Also we’d had very wet springs the seasons prior to the stormy hurricane seasons and this year was much drier than normal so I supposed that overall the weather patterns had changed. That plus I bought a generator and put lots of effort and money into hurricane prep this year.

The thing I really like is that it proves, at least to me, that there is no hard link between global warming and bad hurricane seasons. Either that or the climatologists are holding back information that the earth cooled this past year. They are a little boxed in. If the earth did warm and we didn’t have the forecast storms, then maybe there is no link. On the other hand if the earth cooled a tad, that would reinforce the link between the temp and storms but would ease people’s concerns about warming as long term trend and also destroy the theory that burning fossil fuels is the source of the warming since we certainly burned more fuel this year than the year before.

My fading image is big Al meeting with Indian Medicine Men contracting for some rain and storm dances. Promising new casinos if they will only produce another Katrina, maybe making landfall on Long Island – wiping out Clinton headquarters.

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